Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016419 0.018578 0.020917 0.023638 0.026719 0.030099 0.034090
2025-09-21 0.012706 0.015610 0.019022 0.023330 0.028629 0.034939 0.043038
2025-09-28 0.010428 0.013553 0.017434 0.022616 0.029364 0.037867 0.049422
2025-10-05 0.009453 0.012865 0.017303 0.023508 0.031974 0.043152 0.059078
2025-10-12 0.008594 0.012172 0.017016 0.024062 0.034077 0.047845 0.068286
2025-10-19 0.007923 0.011631 0.016831 0.024670 0.036229 0.052704 0.078087
2025-10-26 0.007153 0.010846 0.016196 0.024529 0.037229 0.055941 0.085760
2025-11-02 0.006542 0.010222 0.015715 0.024532 0.038393 0.059449 0.094074
2025-11-09 0.005911 0.009498 0.015003 0.024092 0.038796 0.061782 0.100706
2025-11-16 0.005528 0.009121 0.014783 0.024383 0.040344 0.065984 0.110627
2025-11-23 0.005088 0.008608 0.014294 0.024180 0.041048 0.068848 0.118547
2025-11-30 0.004845 0.008398 0.014273 0.024740 0.043046 0.073972 0.130683
2025-12-07 0.004373 0.007760 0.013496 0.023963 0.042723 0.075201 0.136273
2025-12-14 0.004029 0.007317 0.013015 0.023657 0.043195 0.077839 0.144604
2025-12-21 0.003657 0.006789 0.012337 0.022933 0.042837 0.078944 0.150187
2025-12-28 0.003561 0.006757 0.012543 0.023837 0.045538 0.085806 0.167129
2026-01-04 0.003424 0.006634 0.012568 0.024399 0.047633 0.091692 0.182692
2026-01-11 0.003304 0.006533 0.012622 0.025017 0.049876 0.098025 0.199663
2026-01-18 0.003100 0.006249 0.012303 0.024873 0.050600 0.101448 0.211056
2026-01-25 0.002929 0.006018 0.012070 0.024876 0.051612 0.105509 0.224087
2026-02-01 0.002724 0.005699 0.011634 0.024430 0.051657 0.107601 0.233138
2026-02-08 0.002612 0.005563 0.011560 0.024725 0.053273 0.113050 0.249838
2026-02-15 0.002458 0.005329 0.011261 0.024520 0.053799 0.116236 0.261843